We first identify the study population (say, all iPhone 4′s in Canada) and parameters for attributes we are interested in (we will need θ to be the proportion of these iPhone 4′s which are faulty/defective pieces of lemonware—in other words, the chance that you will receive a catastrophic failure of an iPhone).

We start by assuming that the parameter θ has a certain reasonable value (like 0.001, which says, on average, we think 1 in 1000 iPhone 4′s are defective in the study population). You should note that any numbers here are just guesses I’m making for illustration’s sake. Nowhere am I claiming these values or figures are real or confirmed or even remotely representative of the actual failure rates. Don’t sue me, Apple. Your legal expenses will be greater than everything you’d get bankrupting me.

Anyway, say this is the case. Then let the random variable Y be “we get a working iPhone 4 on the k^th iPhone” where k = 1, 2, … (all positive integers). So then, the probability of the random variable Y taking on the realization of the plain integer y would be:

P (Y = k) = θ ^{k – 1} (1 – θ)

You may recognize this as the geometric distribution and indeed it is. What we are saying is, there will be (k – 1) catastrophic failures before the k^th iPhone is one that works. We also assume you’d stop driving all the way to the Apple Store to ask for and pick up replacements once you get a working one. I think this model is fair, as long as you stop replacing them eventually.

For example, if the first iPhone you get is fine, then k = 1 and we are done. The probability of this is P(Y = 1) = (1 – θ) (since θ to the power of 0 equals 1). Substituting the hypothesized value of θ in, you’d get that the chance of you getting a working iPhone 4 on the first try would be something like 999/1,000 or 99.9%.

Say your first one is a dud, but the replacement works out to be perfect. Then:

P(Y = 2) = (1/1,000)(999/1,000) << (the chance of a lemon) x (the chance of not a lemon)

= 999/1,000,000

= 0.000999

= 0.0999%

However, if you are me, then let k be greater than 2.

P(Y = k) = P(Y > 2) << strictly greater than 2

= 1 – [P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 2)] << this is the probability of everything (1) minus the prob’s of k = 1 and k = 2

= 1 – [999/1,000 + (1/1,000)(999/1,000)] << calculated above to be 0.999 + 0.000999

= 0.000001 << this is 1 in 1,000,000 if you don’t realize

That’s right folks. If the 1:1,000 failure rate is anywhere close to reality (and I’m not saying it is) then what I’ve gone through so far is one in a million. Of course, if the real rate is closer to 1% then it’d be like one in ten thousand, which is still really unlikely, though scaled back a bit.

Basically, the first iPhone 4 I received (after ordering on launch day and waiting three weeks for it to ship—nevermind the mishap where FedEx sent my iPhone to me, then to Vancouver, before sending it back to me) turned out to have a busted compass (GPS sensor was broken) and a busted gyroscope (a new sensor in the iPhone 4). I went to the Apple Store at Fairview yesterday to get it replaced—they didn’t have any stock so they had to order a replacement unit for me. I was told it would take three to five days to get there, but it arrived by 9 pm the same night. So, like a good boy, I drove down to the store again today to pick up the replacement. Just my luck: the replacement was another lemon! iTunes could not detect/connect to the replacement phone. Seriously. Two in a row, both lemons, when this phone is supposed to be of something really special/high-calibre.

Sidenote: you’d think someone at Apple would’ve thought of “let’s check these replacement units before they leave the door because it might make us look completely stupid if we replaced a lemon with another lemon”, but no. I can’t explain why (ask Apple, they might have a coherent reason, but I can’t think of any).

If I ever do get a working iPhone 4, it’ll be in the case where k > 2. If the next one works (i.e. the third one), then I think the probability of that (being a subset of k > 2) is something in the range of  0.000000999, or 9.99*10^-9 if we stick with the 1 in 1,000 assumption.

Anyway, fired off an email to Steve Jobs and I wonder if he’ll ever respond. I asked him to put a few of his engineers on the task of figuring out the exact probability of getting my package incorrectly sorted by FedEx, having two sensors arrive as broken in the same iPhone, and then getting a lemon replacement unit that can’t be detected by iTunes. I added a bonus question for them to predict the probability that my next replacement unit would actually work as advertised.

It wasn’t all sarcastic though—I did mention the fact that I’ve often stood up for Apple’s philosophy of making high-quality stuff that’s worth the extra money, provided it works, but the bullshit attitude of the “Genius” girl at the Fairview Apple Store today and the impotent store manager (who could only offer apologies and “explanations” like “Well as you can see there’s nothing I can do about anything ever”) really made a sizeable dent in my opinion of Apple. Sure there’s nothing you can do, but how about taking my suggestion of “check the replacements before they are shipped out, before you call me, and before I drive down here” seriously, rather than rolling eyes?

Anyway, back to the math: either I really am lucky enough to win the inverse lottery 5+ times (FedEx shipping, attenuation not fixed, Sensor 1, Sensor 2, Lemon Replacement, and probably something else to come)—I was fortunate enough to have, in my one experience, observed something unbelievably unlikely—or the failure rate for these components is actually a lot higher, making these kinds of problems a lot more common than Apple would like. Surely, it must cost more to be playing these cat and mouse games with replacement units than to just employ better quality controls. Then again, it costs Apple next to nothing when I’m the one taking time out of my day and gas out of my car (or bus tokens out of my pocket) to pick up hardware replacements (or in my case, get head-faked again).

Hopefully I get a response from Steve Jobs and I can post the results here. What I really want to see is some sort of “I will look into it” from him. I still love Apple’s stuff, I just really hate my luck and MAYBE I’m starting to hate their quality (controls) and hardware replacement process.

PS: To the “Genius” girl working at the Apple Store rolling your eyes when I mentioned “You can’t keep my signed replacement receipt if this phone doesn’t work, by the way”, FFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUU.

• watched Audrey Hepburn’s “Charade” with Amy
• got Ulrich the iPhone 4 set up with Fido through a nice Québecois lady, and ended my stay with Koodo
• went to IKEA looking for a bed frame, left with a can opener and a potato peeler
• checked out Buskerfest with Amy (Friday), and then with Adwin and Shawn (Saturday)
• Distillery District for coffees and gelato with Amy

Here’s a follow-up email response I got from Sabrina Killingsworth at theplayerscove after I had tried to make nice and tell her that bigotry is wrong (emphasis mine):

Done Ebay 10 years. Dealt with HUNDREDS of Canadians as well as thousands of buyers across the globe.

Without hatefulness I can declare from sheer experience, The dumbest questions, dumbest answers, most problems,

Most time wasted, most stupid senseless complaints, lowest feedback, most issues of “buyer didn’t read auction description,

in general, came from Canadians. It got so bad,

I even ruled out shipping to Canada all together a few months.

My ex husband works overseas and has Canadians working for him as well as other nationalities.

He happen to have made the SAME experiences over the past 3 years.

Coincidence?

I have since actually tried to figure out why that is so and how it is possible and entire country is by average

Less bright then other folks and came to some conclusions:

Canadians are incredibly naïve, that can often lead to “dumb questions”

Canada was the country where England shipped all its criminals to and I actually suspect they may have also sent all their insane,

Especially since many criminals do have mental issues. Those that came voluntary were hill billies and country men

Not having started on the high end of intelligence either.

Even though done possibly secretly, England has produced a nation that had an uneven start.

Canadians may have had an incest problem in their early history as the country was large with relatively few people in it.

Same thing happened In Germany’s Bavaria where people lived in tiny mountain communities for centuries and nobody in

Germany argues that they are (on average) about as bright as a 10 watt light bulb.

So you see, I have actually wasted some thought on this over the years……

[end of first email]

Oh and I do whole heartedly agree with you concerning Americans being ignorant…

Love this country but yes of course, there are many things in American thinking that are “off” to an outsider.

“Police of the world and God to all” is what we used to call them in Germany already 20 years ago…

However, I actually truly based my opinions about Canadians on NOTHING but personal experience with plenty of

Data and control groups…..

[end of second email]

Cool example I will never forget:

I charged a Canadian lady international shipping ( a bit lower then for other countries but more then US shipping)

She got very upset and wrote me among other bright things :

“Am I the only one thinking of Canada as part of the US?”

[end of third email]

Yeah, seriously. I always wonder how people can be so obviously ignorant and still blind to it all. How is it these people get together and reproduce?!

Notes:

1. I’m not sure, but I think she was talking about Australia with respect to the criminals.
2. I wonder if she thinks that Canada, with such a huge proportion of the population being first or second generation immigrants, is still filled with people who are the products of incest.
3. Does anyone else find it ironic that this lady from Texas is telling me Canadians are descendants of hill-billies?
4. When Americans have stupid ideas, it just appears a little “off” to outsiders,  but when foreigners have stupid ideas, it is because they are the products of incest, criminal-babies, and hill-billy spawn.

Long and short of this story:

• theplayerscove has a great feedback history
• they shipped me an opened/unsealed pot of paint
• apparently this is standard practice and nothing unusual
• Sabrina Killingsworth is either incompetent with ebay’s auto-responder system, or is cheating it with her “I’m not here but I actually am if you try to get your money back”
• she denied the existence of all problems without evidence or consideration
• I have photographs and logs of the entire exchange

The full exchange and logs are after the cut. Will be lengthy and probably boring for most, but might be fun for those who like to read about examples of extremely stupid people saying excruciatingly stupid things and acting ridiculously childishly.

A little back story on what happened:

1. I purchased a pair of awesome satin chrome Zippos got off ebay (jagrfannj you rock).
2. I purchased a pot of Reaper Pro paint from ebay, from theplayerscove.
3. When the paint arrived, I assumed the best and gave theplayerscove a good feedback.
4. A day later, when I went to test the paint out, I opened the pot of paint only to discover that the seal on the inside of the lid had been broken.**** This isn’t really a huge issue, except that I had researched before and found that specifically Reaper Pro paints are great for metal surfaces and they are known for their reliability and quality. My concern with the opened paint was more to protect my investment in the expensive pair of Zippos (time searching and money spent) and not so much to rain justice down for a cheap little pot of paint. I don’t want any additives or tampered paint to have any reaction with my Zippos that might ultimately ruin the finish.
5. I went to ebay to try to contact the seller, and received the following email from ebay:
   —————————————————————–
   eBay sent this message to Carl Wong (xxxx.username.xxxx).
   Your registered name is included to show this message originated from eBay.
   Learn more at http://pages.ebay.ca/help/confidence/name-userid-emails.html
   —————————————————————–
   theplayerscove is out of the office
   —————————————————————–

   Hi xxxx.username.xxxx,

   theplayerscove is out of the office until 12/31/2010 and may not be able to
   respond to your message.

   Message from theplayerscove:
   Hi,

   Our weekends are often not Saturday and Sunday. Please allow 70 hours time for a response. Check the store’s FAQ ? policies page for some immediate answers on the most asked questions. Thank you.
   K. Killingsworth

6. Not to be dissuaded, I followed the link within ebay to go and dispute this/”resolve a problem”, which led me to Paypal where I could start a dispute about the case. I know from experience (with my credit card provider) that if you do not act immediately/within a short duration of time, the chances of you getting your money shrink exponentially, so I acted immediately. I certainly didn’t have 3+ months to wait around for a response.
7. I then got a message from this lady which apparently Paypal did not save, but it said something like “Why didn’t you ask me about this problem first before claiming a dispute? (NOTE: I did, and ebay told me no one would be home until year-end) Is this how they do it in Canada because here in America, we TALK TO EACH OTHER first.” It also included some sarcastic comments about how cute it was that I thought Paypal might disappear tomorrow. Possible, but unlikely obviously, but that timeframe for disputing charges could very well disappear tomorrow. So, score one for sound reasoning, zero for wannabe wise-cracking sarcasm.
8. Upon reading this, I first thought to myself “Um, this person seems to be confused because clearly they are not out of the office if they can immediately respond to a dispute. Also, I’m probably dealing with a teenage American with a bad temper and even worse people skills.” Turns out this is an adult woman with a husband and everything.
9. Anyway, I responded to this ridiculous and hostile snap at me by pasting in that same email that I had received from ebay (see above) into the dispute resolution messages on Paypal. The following was the rest of the exchange that Paypal did log (completely unedited and I only bolded the date-stamps, and just to clarify, I am the buyer and this Sabrina Killingsworth person is the seller):

• 8/24/2010 16:29 GMT-04:00 - Seller: Funny..did YOU YOURSELF just paste in my automated message that states :”Please allow 70 hours time for a response.” while you had to file a dispute right away anyway, even though there was NO HURRY for it whatsoever?I am not suppose to be hostile when someone files fraud charges and harms my standing with Ebay in a totally uncalled for dispute over a $2.50 buckst of paint I am being accused of being “unpure” because some seal was broken??
• 8/24/2010 19:03 GMT-04:00 - Buyer: I just pasted that message from whatever I got from ebay. You can read that little automatic ” I’ll take 70 hours to respond” all you want, but the email does say that you were supposed to be gone until December 31, 2010. If that’s not true, then maybe change your settings in ebay instead of making a fuss to someone who received an opened bucket of paint from you. Maybe you should get pissed at reaper or whoever you got this paint from instead of me because so far, all I’ve done is paid for something new, and received something opened. Sure you can feel like it’s dumb to question a $2.50 bucket of paint, but you’re not the one that needs to use it on an model worth a lot more than $2.50. Of course, you’ve already gotten my ebay seller feedback as good so why would you even care about how to make this right? Really, there’s not much I can do except file a dispute case because plenty of people all over ebay/Amazon won’t even reply to complaints until it’s too late for the consumer to claim the money back, and then they’ve already winked off with the money. It’s not my job to figure out what kind of character you’ve got or worry about how your standing with ebay looks. If you cared so much about your integrity or how ebay views these disputes, maybe you should’ve made sure the paint was sealed before it left your doors. You made me pay for the item and the shipping, so I think it’s fair for me to assume the item would leave your place as described, and that whatever shipping method you picked would be safe from any tampering on the way. Don’t throw a fit at me when I’m the one getting ripped off.
• 8/25/2010 22:49 GMT-04:00 - Seller: Maybe I would have cared if you had ASKED me instead of filing a dispute?Anyways, the paint IS NEW and UNUSED, “sealed” or not. Freaking paint pots don’t even HAVE a seal. Guess what, I just opened another THREE I got here to see what the heck you are even talking about and found no seal on either! NOR will anyone who receives these tell me they are “unsealed”. What the heck is your problem?
• 8/25/2010 22:51 GMT-04:00 - Seller: Paint was new as stated. 100′s of paint pots sold in the past few months. There is no SEAL on these pots. Paint comes straight from distributor who receives them directly from Reaper!
• 8/25/2010 22:51 GMT-04:00 - PayPal: Seller escalated this dispute to a Claim.

After all this back and forth, with me trying my best to be civil, it ended up being pushed to a claim. Yes I was pretty inflammatory at times but really, who can resist a perfect opportunity to turn someone as stubbornly ignorant and in denial completely on their head? I checked with Canada Post, and it’d cost me about $5.40 to send the item back to this Sabrina Killingsworth person for me to get my $5.79 back, meaning I’d be back at square one but down $5.40. This didn’t make much mathematical sense, so I decided I’d cancel the dispute, but not before I fired off a pretty pointed email assuring this woman in denial that I was in no way conceding the point, but just being smart about my cash. I also included this little number:

Here are some highlights from my email if you’re interested (I kept more or less all of it, except some restatements of facts):

Just so you know what I’m talking about and don’t get away with denying everything like a weasel, here’s
a photograph of the seal you are telling me “OMG DOES NOT EXIST”. And only know that I am cancelling the claim because postage to send you your little pot of paint would cost about the same as me just buying another pot, from a seller who actually knows what they are doing, and what they are selling. Please do not mistake my cancellation as any sort of concession on my part.

[...]

I mean, who wants to have the whole “I try to contact you, and ebay tells me you’re out of office, and then you magically get to respond immediately when there’s a problem, even though you’re supposed to be out of the office, and then you have to violently deny any wrong doing on your part and then I have to take a photo to prove to you either you’re bullshitting me or someone is bullshitting both of us and then finally the claim goes away simply because it’d cost too much to fix and not because you were completely in the wrong and shipped something that was not as described and you seem to have absolutely no clue about what you sell or how to talk to people”.

[...]

I will understand your manner of speaking and dealing with people if you are either 1) younger than 12 years old, or 2) an American. Apparently, you are for sure the latter (how’s the weather in Texas?), and probably the former as well. In that case, my condolences on your unfortunate lot in life. I’m almost sure being your kind of red-blooded American should excuse you from needing any sort of critical thinking, or reasonable conflict management skills. If you don’t understand something, surely you should just whine about it, ridicule all other parties, and when all else fails, ask “What the heck is your problem?” without ever once considering that maybe you’re in the wrong.

I hope the claim at Paypal really does have a negative impact on your ebay business and standing because, even if the paint wasn’t tampered with and the pots are supposed to have opened seals, your childish antics and obvious lack of people skills ought to rule you out from doing any sort of business (or reproducing) with anyone, ever. Obviously the world isn’t perfect and that’s why people like you are still selling things.

Enjoy being proven completely wrong and clueless by the attached photo as proof of my case. I’ve even labeled the parts for you, in case you have trouble understanding exactly what’s going on.

[next I had attached a copy of the photo above, showing the pot of paint and where the seal used to be]

Now, please try and tell me whether pots of paint have seals.

PS: Our entire exchange on Paypal and ebay may or may not appear on an online publication in the near future as an example of what not to do (and who not to buy from) so here’s a heads up.

Have not heard back from them, obviously, but since then the ebay user theplayerscove has changed their auto-response email to 1) read in German and 2) include a line saying “Hi, I am NOT gone until December. That is an error if you receive that message.” I have received no apology or “Oh yeah, I guess my email responder was wrong.” from this person, and would not expect any such thing ever. Another person to throw into the “stuck-up bitch who can’t admit fault” bin.

I say a pox on her and her kin for seven generations. May her loins never bear fruit, and if they already have, may her children resemble her in character as much as the night resembles the day. Let destruction and pestilence, gnashing of teeth and steadfast weeping be all that anyone will remember of her life and legacy. And in all things, may prosperity and happiness elude her house like the wind at one’s fingertips.

Aside: Maybe I need a book for these.

Notes: The original audio track was supposed to be Kaela Kimura’s “Level 42″ but because the folks at Columbia Music are dicks sticklers about people promoting their artists on their behalf for free illegal use of their “property” they wouldn’t let me use it on YouTube and the audio got nuked. I then used an audio-swap feature of YouTube’s to substitute a pre-licensed song (the “I’m Feeling Lucky” automatic song finder gave me Finger Eleven’s “Paralyzer” after two tries).

I hope you enjoy the video, without the original, nicely cut and faded audio. Thanks be to Karen for helping me with the cutting of the pages, and Amy for her genius idea on how to bind and seal the pages together. Oh, and thanks be to Columbia Music, just for being the kind of company they are. Please, continue to set this kind of precedent for all those in the music industry and do for your artists what only you can do, and I’m almost sure you will have a flourishing business model on your hands. That, or crash and burn like the bags of fecal matter in airplanes low on fuel that you so desperately wish to resemble.

Hate for petty and childish business models aside, I’m loving the phone and loved making the case. I have indeed been able to replicate the attenuation problem (to crush the dreams of all those who were hoping some magical fix had been implemented in the second batch of iPhones), but it seems that it is only an issue in inherently weak-signaled places, and I do think the reception overall is actually better on the iPhone 4. For example, I get 3 bars that will drop to none or 1 when applying the death-grip to Ulrich from within my condo. As a reference, I normally get zero/no reception at all with my previous handset in the same spot. This proves that attenuation is still a problem. However, the fact that the phone even gets any reception in that spot at all indicates that the antennae actually performs better if not being cheated.

• Matthew Good Band – Indestructible
• Death Cab For Cutie – Marching Bands of Manhattan
• Thousand Foot Krutch – Phenomenon
• Tomoyasu Hotei – Battle Without Honor or Humanity
• Pilate – Into Your Hideout

There’s something wonderful about listening to tracks of a former life that brings back all those memories subconsciously, binding perceptions and recollections the past with the very real and current present.

[ Please visit the original page to listen ]

Died in a motor crash.
I came back for you,
The perfect version of myself.
Tomorrow we start again.
Tomorrow came and went.

I’m indestructible, how?
I’m indestructible.
I’m indestructible, how?
I’m into you. I’m in two.

I’m indestructible.
- Matthew Good Band, Indestructible

Waking up early, hot showering, BBQ pork buns, orange juice in a blueberry juice bottle, worshipping with Adwin, sermon about convenants, joking around with Adwin’s father, McDonald’s with the usual suspects, borrowing Benson’s Starcraft 2, medium double-double, cranberry muffin, coffee 2, lunch with LoaH team, Shamrock Burgers, chewy onion rings, stuffed, practicing, The Middle, Move Along, Vertigo, Hanging By a Moment, Voice of Truth, Summertime, Stars, You’re All I Have, Shooting Stars, I Hear You Calling, bass overdrive pedal, near-blistering tingly fingers, (iced) coffee 3, Awakening softball back-to-back wins, Swiss Chalet with Stephen, chats, BBC’s Sherlock Holmes 103